Monday, August 17, 2009

Good signs from emerging markets-Africa

Good signs from emerging markets-Africa

Emerging markets (read Africa) are intertwined by its erratic politics. However, the levels of foreign investors are far below the heady days of 2004-07, when just about any country on the poorest continent, was a potential investment destination.

Most realistic propositions then and now were Nigeria the frontier regions biggest economy and Kenya, due to the presence in both of functioning secondary debts markets, albeit much less liquidity than Jo’burg-South Africa.

Punters are keen on Angola’s oil slice. It’s not lost to the observers, that Angola was one of the countries US Secretary of State visited during her tour in Africa.

Africa bonds below:

Kenya

Kenya has not issued international bonds. It’s domestic 10 yr paper was yielding 11.4% in the secondary market

Ghana

$750 million 10 yr Eurobond, launched in 2007 with a coupon of 8.5%, was yielding about 9.3% last week.

Gabon

$1 billion ,10 yr Eurobond, launched in December 2007 with a coupon of 8.2% is yielding 8.37%

Nigeria

Has not issued international bonds. Domestic 10 yr government paper was yielding 9.9% in the secondary market last week.

Uganda

Has secondary market but activity is sporadic at best, with days or even weeks elapsing between trades.

Tanzania

Lacks a secondary market, but is having to issue debt to finance infrastructure development.